Preseason Rankings
Michigan St.
Big Ten
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+15.5#10
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.0#113
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+8.5#9
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.0#17
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.3% 3.4% 0.6%
#1 Seed 12.2% 12.6% 2.1%
Top 2 Seed 23.5% 24.2% 6.4%
Top 4 Seed 43.9% 45.1% 15.5%
Top 6 Seed 59.4% 60.8% 26.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 78.9% 80.2% 49.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 75.8% 77.1% 46.9%
Average Seed 4.7 4.6 6.4
.500 or above 85.5% 86.8% 56.3%
.500 or above in Conference 77.8% 78.8% 55.0%
Conference Champion 17.2% 17.7% 4.8%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 1.4% 4.3%
First Four3.2% 3.1% 4.7%
First Round77.6% 78.9% 48.1%
Second Round60.8% 62.0% 32.4%
Sweet Sixteen37.1% 38.0% 16.6%
Elite Eight20.5% 21.1% 7.1%
Final Four11.1% 11.4% 3.1%
Championship Game5.8% 5.9% 1.4%
National Champion2.8% 2.9% 0.7%

Next Game: Eastern Michigan (Home) - 95.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 64 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 8
Quad 25 - 112 - 10
Quad 33 - 015 - 10
Quad 43 - 019 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 160   Eastern Michigan W 79-60 96%    
  Nov 28, 2020 70   Notre Dame W 80-70 84%    
  Dec 01, 2020 5   @ Duke L 77-81 34%    
  Dec 04, 2020 245   Detroit Mercy W 90-66 98%    
  Dec 06, 2020 238   Western Michigan W 84-61 98%    
  Dec 09, 2020 6   @ Virginia L 59-63 37%    
  Dec 13, 2020 243   Oakland W 84-60 98%    
  Dec 20, 2020 80   @ Northwestern W 75-69 69%    
  Dec 25, 2020 8   Wisconsin W 70-67 60%    
  Dec 28, 2020 37   @ Minnesota W 73-72 55%    
  Jan 02, 2021 113   @ Nebraska W 84-75 77%    
  Jan 05, 2021 33   Rutgers W 75-68 73%    
  Jan 08, 2021 28   Purdue W 72-66 70%    
  Jan 14, 2021 9   @ Iowa L 79-82 40%    
  Jan 17, 2021 24   Indiana W 76-71 67%    
  Jan 23, 2021 13   Illinois W 74-71 62%    
  Jan 28, 2021 33   @ Rutgers W 72-71 53%    
  Jan 31, 2021 17   @ Ohio St. L 71-73 44%    
  Feb 03, 2021 113   Nebraska W 87-72 89%    
  Feb 06, 2021 19   @ Michigan L 74-76 45%    
  Feb 09, 2021 62   Penn St. W 82-73 78%    
  Feb 13, 2021 9   Iowa W 82-79 59%    
  Feb 16, 2021 28   @ Purdue W 70-69 51%    
  Feb 20, 2021 24   @ Indiana L 73-74 47%    
  Feb 25, 2021 17   Ohio St. W 74-70 63%    
  Feb 28, 2021 39   @ Maryland W 74-72 55%    
  Mar 07, 2021 19   Michigan W 77-73 63%    
Projected Record 18 - 9 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 2.4 4.1 4.6 3.1 1.6 0.4 17.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.3 4.5 3.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 13.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 3.7 4.1 2.0 0.4 0.0 11.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.3 4.0 1.7 0.2 9.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.7 4.1 1.8 0.2 0.0 9.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.0 3.9 1.8 0.2 8.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.5 2.0 0.3 0.0 7.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.5 1.9 0.5 0.0 5.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.2 0.6 0.0 5.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.8 0.7 0.0 4.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.4 0.7 0.0 3.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.1 2.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.7 2.7 3.9 5.5 6.7 8.5 9.9 10.6 10.9 10.2 9.1 7.6 5.5 3.3 1.6 0.4 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
19-1 99.5% 1.6    1.6 0.0
18-2 94.0% 3.1    2.8 0.3
17-3 83.7% 4.6    3.4 1.1 0.1
16-4 53.9% 4.1    2.3 1.4 0.3 0.0
15-5 26.0% 2.4    0.8 1.0 0.5 0.1
14-6 8.2% 0.8    0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 17.2% 17.2 11.5 4.3 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.4% 100.0% 69.8% 30.2% 1.1 0.4 0.0 100.0%
19-1 1.6% 100.0% 49.2% 50.8% 1.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
18-2 3.3% 100.0% 39.2% 60.8% 1.3 2.5 0.7 0.1 100.0%
17-3 5.5% 100.0% 35.4% 64.6% 1.5 3.2 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 7.6% 100.0% 26.7% 73.3% 2.0 2.6 3.1 1.5 0.4 0.0 100.0%
15-5 9.1% 100.0% 22.7% 77.3% 2.6 1.4 2.9 3.0 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 10.2% 100.0% 15.9% 84.1% 3.5 0.5 1.8 3.3 2.4 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 10.9% 99.9% 11.4% 88.5% 4.6 0.1 0.6 2.2 2.5 2.6 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-8 10.6% 99.3% 7.5% 91.8% 5.8 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.5 2.4 2.4 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.3%
11-9 9.9% 95.0% 3.6% 91.4% 7.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 94.8%
10-10 8.5% 77.0% 3.5% 73.5% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.0 76.1%
9-11 6.7% 41.6% 1.3% 40.3% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.9 40.8%
8-12 5.5% 13.2% 1.0% 12.2% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.8 12.4%
7-13 3.9% 2.0% 0.3% 1.7% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8 1.7%
6-14 2.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 0.3%
5-15 1.7% 0.4% 0.4% 13.0 0.0 1.7
4-16 0.9% 0.9
3-17 0.5% 0.5
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 78.9% 12.9% 66.0% 4.7 12.2 11.3 11.8 8.7 8.3 7.2 5.3 4.0 2.8 2.2 2.3 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 21.1 75.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 100.0